Water bankruptcy in the 21st century: climate pressure, groundwater and surface water depletion and the macroeconomics of water scarcity in northwest Bangladesh

Abstract

This thesis examines the emergence of water bankruptcy in northwest Bangladesh, particularly the High Barind Tract, by analysing climate change, groundwater depletion, declining Teesta River flows, irrigation, energy use, agriculture, governance, and economic costs as an interconnected system. The findings show rising dry-season water demand, severe groundwater decline, weakening aquifer recovery, and an approximately three-quarter reduction in Teesta River flow from the 1979 baseline, increasing dependence on groundwater and energy for irrigation. The study estimates substantial annual economic losses from water scarcity and argues that continued depletion will become increasingly costly. It proposes the Basin Bankruptcy-Adjusted Allocation (BBAA) framework and recommends managed aquifer recharge, ecological-flow protection, demand management, drought-tolerant agriculture, improved monitoring, transboundary cooperation, and climate financing to address water scarcity and prevent further depletion.